I have been on a lot of calls lately talking with analysts and data houses around the stats we are seeing for the NFT space. It is quite amusing at times to look at one set of data that says the sky is falling and the next talking about the boom. Without any kind of agreed-upon organization that would pull data from consistent yet varied sources, this is what we are going to have to live with. But what should we expect, a centralized source for data about decentralized financial platforms?
You get this from Dune Analytics and Exclusible “There are ONLY 280k monthly active traders on #opensea, we are still very very early. What happens when there will be 5M monthly active traders? Now you know why I am so bullish on NFTs.”
Pundits say crashing floor prices and sell volume signal that ‘the NFT market has died’ https://cointelegraph.com/news/pundits-say-crashing-floor-prices-and-sell-volume-signal-that-the-nft-market-has-died
Reports of the crash in NFTs and the crypto space are constant. the moment China came out against the crypto defi industry people panicked and sold crypto and paused on buying NFTs. Looking at real data this is far from the truth.
‘The NFT market has died’
Further evidence that the NFT sector has cooled off significantly from its August highs can be found in the number of sales being transacted on marketplaces. According to data from Nonfungible, the number of daily sales across all NFT marketplaces has declined from a high of 138,109 on Aug. 30 to 42,372 on Sept. 21.
A fund manager told me that the way they are reading the data suggests that we are in for a rather large correction. This market acceleration is unsustainable and that if it is tracked at this pace the NFT market would be bigger than the entire US economy in 5 years, so there has to be a correction. When asked what that would mean for their plans, they said “not much really, we have a long-term strategy and we are going to execute against that long term plan.”
Follow the Bouncing Ball
Look at these NFT Sales charts from FNA, they are from only mid-July and the end of September but look at the variance in the data. Sales in July were dominated by Metaverse and Sports sales, fast forward only 2 months and sales are all about Games and Collectibles. Metaverse and Sports sales virtually disappeared. Yes, this is a volatile marketplace but I think what is being missed here is that NFTs are not all just NFTs. Rememberthe NFT is just a token attached to something of value that can be tracked and transacted on the blockchain.
Current data is comparable to tracking “all” Consumer Goods without breaking them out into categories. It would make more sense to report just on perishables or bakery and look for trends.
The big data swings we are seeing in the NFT space are due to companies investing and incubating ideas. There is a lot of money being invested in startups. and incubators. When they go live and release offerings that promotional money is driving sales. What needs to be looked at is data that tracks purely Digital Art NFT Sales. https://nonfungible.com/market/history does a great job with their reporting.
Where is the Value?
What is interesting about the NFT space is that you have millions of people trying to capitalize on the sale of things that they could not sell on eBay but now pin it to an NFT and think they have added value and made it salable. It is estimated that 99.9% of all NFTs are not valuable and will not sell. Art has always known that one person sees it as valuable and another never even blinks at it. But in the art world, there was a sense of tradition in art and quality even if it was a still life or a portrait. The story of the artist behind the artwork gave it value, the era it was produced in, and the intrinsic quality.
Too many people are investing time and money minting items that will never sell and most if they do, not for more than the time, energy, and monetary investment in them. The value-proposition must sustain for any creator to realistically have a career selling art as NFTs. So think about what that value is and how it helps you differentiate.
Most sites do not have great search engines so unless you proactively promote your NFTs they will live and die in the dark.
Blue Chip NFTs
So, how is the current NFT market creating such a buzz, and what is selling? The current drivers are what are called Blue chip NFTs, those from high-profile creators. Take a moment to look hard at what they are selling, especially outside of the art world, some are selling access, some membership. Other metaverse assets and gaming assets like the NFT Golf Tour Player Cards. Then there is the market of utility NFTs that are used to do something. The Crypto Punks and Bored Apr Yacht Club NFTs are driving the prestige-ownership market, this is a game for the big money players where a million dollars isn’t a dream, it’s pocket change.
Building Long-Term Goals and Strategies
I love the potential of this space and the creativity that NFTs, Crypto, and Blockchain provide. We are still so early in the growth and development of this industry and the early adopters who make the right choices today sit perfectly positioned to win. If you want to compare the industry to the growth of the internet, think of this as comparable to 1997 and if you are old enough to remember, there was a huge run-up of investment to 2000 when the rug got pulled out from under. I investors got scared and there was a correction. Now take a good look at the internet and the infrastructure around it and remember in 2001 there was no iPhone, AppStore, Facebook, Twitter, you get the point.